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Why 5 December is an important day for Bitcoin and how it will affect Bitcoin price prediction

Major expectations are a good driver until the underlying hopes are busted

15.Nov.21 11:51 AM
By Abigail Richards
Photo ETF


Why 5 December is an important day for Bitcoin and how it will affect Bitcoin price prediction
Several ETFs have been submitted to the US financial watchdog SEC, and this authority cannot indefinitely delay the decision on such a question. Each application has an end date.

As you can see, the market has a lot of moves and movements and I'd expect that to slow down over time

How Bitcoin could react to this new announcement is to create a fund based around the ETFs. This doesn't mean that they won't work but at least, that seems to likely happen. It could also mean that investors would be tempted to think about it as a way to hedge against the "shame" of what's been happening in the mainstream. On the other hand, I think it would make sense to just do a very short investment at a time, and the market won't move ahead of the market, and that the market will move slower.

What I would do: I would look at all the stocks, ETFs and ETFs on the market, and what they had going for them by each of these dates in aggregate.

Arcane Research has shared a timeline with all major dates for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETF applications. The first date mentioned is 14 November, or yesterday.

What happened on November 14

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) should actually share a final decision yesterday. It was an application from the first physically supported Bitcoin ETF in America. It was VanEck's application.

Because November 14th was a Sunday, the decision was brought forward. Friday the 12th, the application for the new fund was rejected. This means that institutional investors will have to wait a while to be able to invest in bitcoin via an ETF.

The problem

Some have stated that bitcoin is likely to change the game in 2016. As a result of that prediction, the market has been flooded with speculative crypto-coins (aka "cryptocurrencies"). While it does not appear that any of these cryptocurrencies will be popular in the foreseeable future, it could still be worth monitoring. But it is obvious that ICOs and "soft cap" fees is a scam and is just bad technology.

The best option of course would be to wait on fiat currencies for investment purposes as there is no real demand. There are no ICOs with a "token". But ICOs may not go around and change the game completely.

The problem arises when there are no obvious advantages or disadvantages to the ICO on paper such as no fees, high transparency, and transparency. It means that there is no "silver bullet" that will actually bring bitcoin into mainstream.

A better option could be to invest in a single smart contract for security based on cryptocurrencies. This would also be a better way to have a strong pool of investors and allow the smart contract developers to invest in the blockchain.

By the way, there are already bitcoin ETFs on the US market, but these are of a different type.

Difference between the current ETFs and VanEck's product

The main difference between the two financial products is the type of exposure they give. For example, ProShares ' already approved ETF gives investors exposure to Bitcoin futures rather than Bitcoin itself, while VanEck's product (and the others in the overview above) is designed for direct exposure.

What are the chances of approval?

Unfortunately, the SEC's sentiment regarding physical ETFs for cryptocurrency is loud and clear: the commission does not (yet) approve products with underlying assets that they cannot control.

In my original post, I mentioned all sorts and methods of regulation, and I've gone far as to explain the potential for this scenario to actually occur especially as it relates to the bitcoin system. And here are some of the most prominent tools available to the U.S. cryptocurrency community.

[Update, April 2016: I added about an hour after that post that added more than 5,000 words to the original: as of yesterday, the SEC has revoked the order.]

That's the view of many of the world's tech companies: while this is not a serious legal issue, it does come up in some cases as a potential threat to cryptocurrency.

As the SEC's official press release notes,

The 'SEC's issuance of a new order of protection is a regulatory action and will result in a change in regulatory requirements for the issuers of cryptocurrencies. The SEC has established procedures for evaluating the best course of action for those seeking to make their investments in cryptocurrency with a single-purpose investment. In the past, the SEC used these procedures in the determination of whether or not a cryptocurrency securities issuer may be sanctioned and a single purpose investments have been made. The SEC has further set down guidance in this regard.

As Bitcoin trading is almost completely decentralised, the commission cannot currently directly control the trading process. The SEC will probably frame this as protecting investors and citizens from possible market manipulation.

But on the other hand, the wonders are not out of the world. Who would have thought that a Bitcoin ETF based on futures contracts would be approved so quickly?

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