Shell expects a peak of oil demand in 2021

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Royal Dutch Shell supposes that oil demand may reach its peak in 2021, the company’s Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry told on Tuesday during a conference call. Oilprice.com remarks that it is much sooner that most analysts forecasted.

“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” said Simon Henry. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport,” he added.

Other oil majors are not as optimistic in their forecasts as Shell. Exxon Mobil in its annual outlook said “global demand for oil and other liquids is projected to rise by about 20 percent from 2014 to 2040.”

Meanwhile, the World Energy Council is sure that peak demand will arrive no earlier than in 2030. The Council supposes that renewable energy and other eco-friendly technologies such as electric cars should keep their fast level of growth.

“Even if oil demand declines, its replacements will be in products that we are very well placed to supply one way or the other, so we need to be the energy major of the 2050s,” Henry said. “That underpins our strategic thinking. It’s part of the switch to gas, it’s part of what we do in biofuels, both now and in the future.”